2019 NFL Postseason Predictions from Machine Learning Model—Divisional Round Update
Bump for Texans, Dip for Chiefs
Last week I provided my model predictions (V 4.0) and compared them to other forecasts by ESPN and FiveThirtyEight. Now that the dust has settled after a weekend of close games (all within one possession late in the 4th quarter, including 2 overtimes), let’s compare performance of the models and take a look at updated predictions given the current state of the playoff bracket.
One way to measure performance is to take the sum of winning chances for the remaining teams. By this metric, V 4.0 ranked first in terms of remaining chances to make the Super Bowl and second in terms of chances to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Miami Gardens. The average of the two ranks was highest for V 4.0. While individual game winner selection was below expectation (only 1 of 4 correct), V 4.0 accurately predicted that the Seahawks would have a better postseason than the Saints. However, in comparison with all the other models, V 4.0 was more confident about the Patriots ability to make a deep run, but instead, New England’s players will be at home, watching the Titans play on.
With updated data, I once again generated 10,000 simulations of the remaining playoff bracket with the surviving teams.
The No. 1 seeds, the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers, remain the favorites to represent their conferences in Super Bowl LIV. The Texans’ chances of playing on Super Bowl Sunday increased the most (5% to 18%), while the Chiefs’ chances decreased the most (28% to 22%). Interestingly, V 4.0 gives a slight edge to the Texans this upcoming Sunday, due primarily to a better rushing matchup. However, the model still favors the Chiefs to have more success overall, because if they do happen to win, they matchup better against future opponents.
Once more we can compare V 4.0 to other predictions that have been published on the web: ESPN’s FPI and FiveThirtyEights’s Elo & QB-adjusted Elo.
On the whole, there are still many similarities between the predictions, though there are also some differences worth noting. All the models agree on the top 2 teams in each conference, AFC: Ravens and Chiefs, NFC: 49ers and Packers. After that, V 4.0 favors the Seahawks over the Vikings and the Texans over the Titans, while the other models have opposite ranking for those two pairs.
Another Upset?
During Wild Card Weekend, three teams managed to win on the road. Will we see some more away team victories before the postseason ends? V 4.0 thinks it’s unlikely for the Titans or the Vikings to pull it off, but it suggests the Seahawks are only a slight underdog and the Texans are actually a favorite traveling to Arrowhead Stadium. Will the Lamar Jackson vs. Patrick Mahomes showdown materialize? More overtime drama? Can Mike Vrabel and the Titans defeat a second veteran, Super Bowl winning coach in back to back weeks? We’ll have all the answers soon.
